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Friday, March 6, 2009
Recipe for Disaster: The Formula That Killed Wall Street
This article goes along with one of our previous posts about the lovely Ms. Hot Heidi barteder. This is the more technical version of the story.
It pretty can be summed up by this warren buffet quote, which if you have been doing your reading, you would be familiar with.
"Beware of geeks bearing formulas."- Warren E. Buffet
David X.Li is that geek and the Gaussian copula function is his formula.
Now for the story.
Read it. Then come back to me. Don't keep me waiting.
Recipe for Disaster: The Formula That Killed Wall Street
Thanks
WSC- yerd me
How Credit Default Swaps work in Lamens Terms
"Heidi is the proprietor of a bar in Berlin . In order to increase sales, she decides to allow her loyal customers - most of whom are unemployed alcoholics - to drink now but pay later. She keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers loans). Word gets around and as a result increasing numbers of customers flood into Heidi's bar. Taking advantage of her customers' freedom from immediate payment constraints, Heidi increases her prices for wine and beer, the most-consumed beverages. Her sales volume increases massively. A young and dynamic customer service consultant at the local bank recognizes these customer debts as valuable future assets and increases Heidi's borrowing limit. He sees no reason for undue concern since he has the debts of the alcoholics as collateral.
At the bank's corporate headquarters, expert bankers transform these customer assets into DRINKBONDS, ALKBONDS and PUKEBONDS. These securities are then traded on markets worldwide. No one really understands what these abbreviations mean and how the securities are guaranteed. Nevertheless, as their prices continuously climb, the securities become top-selling items. One day, although the prices are still climbing, a risk manager (subsequently of course fired, due his negativity) of the bank decides that slowly the time has come to demand payment of the debts incurred by the drinkers at Heidi's bar. However they cannot pay back the debts. Heidi cannot fulfill her loan obligations and claims bankruptcy. DRINKBOND and ALKBOND drop in price by 95 %. PUKEBOND performs better, stabilizing in price after dropping by 80 %. The suppliers of Heidi's bar, having granted her generous payment due dates and having invested in the securities are faced with a new situation. Her wine supplier claims bankruptcy, her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor. The bank is saved by the Government following dramatic round-the-clock consultations by leaders from the governing political parties. The funds required for this purpose are obtained by a tax levied on the non-drinkers."
-WSJ
If you want a more technical version read this article.
And I pictured Heidi to look like this, obviously.
I hate being right, and now I am depressed.
Sorry, I have been slacking on the writing, I just can't muster up the energy with the market in its current state. Tear.
After reading this article I am even slightly more depressed. Here are few points I took away from the article.
"In the end, the timing of the bear's retreat will likely hinge on that great market imponderable: psychology. How investors feel has a lot to do with whether they start seeing mixed signals as proof of a glass half-full. "The [market] stress causes the analytical part of our brains to shut down, and that makes us hyperreactive to bad news," says Michael A. Ervolini, CEO of Cabot Research, a consultancy catering to institutional investors. People become convinced conditions are worse than rock-bottom bad, he says. Only after they see that they've overreacted can things improve: "We look for the market to start [saying] tomorrow will be brighter." - Business Week
I whole heartedly believe this is true, partly because it feel like it has happened to me and most of the people I associate with. I mean lets be honest watching the market go down a couple hundred points everyday really make you just want to take the ole mini van out for a spin the wrong way down 95 and hope for the best.
As much is this does hurt right now, one can only think that it has to be one of the greatest opportunities for people in the age bracket of 20-30 with money to put into the market. If you decided today to put 10k into the market (I don't condone such balls of steel) the market would only ( I say only like its just so easy) have to get back to 8125 for a 25% return on their money. Now based on that article it is going to take around 6-8 years for the Dow to get back to 14,000 level, but hell that would be a 115% return in 6 years. Not bad right? Well not unless you started investing 10k on the day it notched over 14,000.... Then you are just back to even, given you never invested a cent after that, which would just be dumb.
So people, for the time being, lets just try to gather those happy thoughts and turn the market back around. Throw on Mr. Jones by the Counting Crows and just stare at this picture, clearly it will solve all the problems you have.
Thanks
WSC
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Obama-rama
Friday, February 20, 2009
Rick Santelli, The man of the people
Thank You.
Now my buddy Rick Santelli from CNBC has also decided that the Government does not know what they are doing and once again THE MARKETS DON'T LIE.
Watch the video!!!!!! HERE
Rick's idea of having a website setup where people vote is a great idea and I think it should be implemented yesterday. I really hope Obama watches CNBC religiously, it should be streaming in the whitehouse everyday. Now I know he didn't create the current crisis, but I am not sure if what he is doing is really fixing it. Only time will tell.
Anyway, in 2012 I'm writing Rick Santelli on my presidential ballot, instead of the usual Mickey Mouse.
I mean he looks like a president.......
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Short the market. Seems you can't lose
This is what you get when you type "to short" into Google. It is the first thing that shows up and that is what scares me. Is Google that smart? or is that market just that bad?
If you shorted the market 10 years ago and never looked at it again until today you would be up around 30%. That is terrible and bucks every trend instilled in many of us investors today.
This crap makes me sick, I mean to the point where i feel like I am being overcome with Black Death. You guys know that one, where you are up all night praying to the porcelain god from both ends. Ya that one.
Now pardon me if you can't read that graph, but don't worry it pretty much just says that if you put money in them market over the last 10 years you have less now than you did then. If you are a buy and hold investor that is, which I think encompasses the majority of us.
I really have no idea where I am going with this post here. I still think the market is going further down. 7500?? Pretty much I am just sick of the market acting the way it is, and the Obama team hasn't proven anything to me yet, except that they talk a good game.
Buy a shirt, my kids need food, we are in a recession.
Friday, February 6, 2009
Dr. Marc Faber Tells it How it is
Thursday, February 5, 2009
I love Mastercard, no honestly I really love it.
Now lets get one thing straight, MA has fallen from $320 a share to a modest $150 in the recent downturn of all downturns know as "The Recession, even after all that I still have love for them. Today they announced earnings that beat Wall Streets estimates and the stock is up $10 as we speak.
Now if you don't understand how MA works let me give you a quick explanation. MA does not lend money to anyone, so they have no credit risk. They simply perform the transaction for financial instituion. For example, you go to CVS and buy a pack of gum for $1.00. You decided to pay with your debit card, cause honestly who carries cash now a days. Your debit card is from you bank, but your card has the little mastercard logo on it, so $1.00 is taken from you bank account and MA charges the place you bought the gum a fee for using their card. Usually around 3%. So they just made .03 cents off poor CVS. Now think of all the transactions that occur, ya they get 3% of them. Not to bad if you ask me.
Ok so now your thinking well people are spending less, blah blah blah, but guess what? People still have to buy gas, groceries and shit from Wal-Mart (WMT) and you know what they are gonna use to buy it.... A Credit or Debit card and MA is going to take that all the way to the bank baby.
So now they you clearly understand how it works, go pick up some MA shares while they are just oh so cheap.
I found this picture from my younger years and figured I would share it with you guys. Ya I know, the girl was a beast, clearly she didn't need to wear those heals.
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
Steeler's in Bed with the Economy
I did wait to post this write-up because the market didn’t do so well yesterday. I am fully on board with this theory though. I took a Pittsburgh tease for the game and won a General Grant so the Steeler’s have already helped out my economic situation. I’m not a big Steeler’s fan but Omar Epps does do a great job as head coach. Anyways buy some Cintas stock and jump right in because the economy will use anything to get out of Detroit, I mean the gutter.
Saturday, January 31, 2009
"I wanna punch the economy in the face!"
I could watch these babies all day...Hilarious. If these didn't make the cut for the Superbowl, I can't wait to see did.
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Ford Burns 5.5 billion in cash.... Ya Billion
"Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Ford Motor Co., insisting it can survive without federal loans, said it burned $5.5 billion in cash in the fourth quarter and will tap a revolving credit line after the worst annual performance in its 105-year history.
The second-biggest U.S. automaker posted a full-year loss of $14.6 billion, eclipsing 2006’s record of $12.6 billion. Cash in Ford’s automotive business fell to $13.4 billion, the company said today in a statement."- Bloomberg.com
Honestly, I hate ford. What kind of trash company do you have to be to not have enough forward thinking to stop this kind of mess. Now I don't own a ford, I don't own stock in ford, so I am not bitter about driving a shitty car, or losing money in the market, I just flat out think they suck. I love all the flex fuel cars I see driving around. How is that working out for those people???? I could go on for hours about the poor craftsmanship of the most, now don't get mad, cause i did say most, not all of the cars in their fleet.
This was fords forward thinking in 2000.
This beast "averaged" 12mpg and had a base sticker price of 37,800! hahaha. They now sell for around 5k-8k on ebay.
Hey ford "Be A Winner" will you.
Your Boys-WSC
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Al Gore goes to Washington
I still can't get over how great Al's timing is when it comes to his "global warming" speeches. It seems as though every time he has something to say about it the weather drops to below zero and massive snow fall comes along. The way this winter is going I wouldn't mind some real global warming right now.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Airlines: Seriously inefficient, but they hooked me up
That is, until my weekend experience. So I flew down to Charlotte this weekend to see my high school buddy(no homo). The US Airways flight to Charlotte had fallen into the Hudson the day before and since commercial air accidents happen about once every 5 years, I felt the clock had restarted and I didn’t have to worry about a crash for my next few flights. So I got into Charlotte without a hitch after my layover in Newark and had a great weekend. Girls in North Carolina are much different than girls up north, it seemed like every girl had a pretty face and smoking body. Only problem was that these girls were with the biggest puds in the world. I’m talking girls who are 8’s or 9’s with dinks who were 4’s or 5’s.
(side note: I went out with a couple of kids in Charlotte that brought up some very important guidelines when going out on the town.)
1. A girl who is over 30 and isn’t married and never was, is tainted goods. Being that old and not in a relationship means she’s seriously screwy in the head. This is especially true if the girl is hot. By that stage in her life if the girl hasn’t found some helpless guy to put up with her shit it means she’s totally tapped. Guys, don’t take the “my career got in the way of a relationship” argument either, something is seriously wrong with this women and don’t waste your time talking to her unless you’re into crazies.
2. If you’re talking to a girl who has more than three or four friends with her there is no chance you are going home with that girl. As a wise man once told me “there are too many people to cock block you.” I firmly believe in this theory, even if the girl falls in love with you in those few hours before last call I can guarantee that at least one of her friends doesn’t like you or a friend is jealous because she is ugly and will convince her friend that you’re not worthy. Shoot for groups of two or three.
These items will be added to the black book of man laws.
Anyways back to my story. So the weekend was great and I was flying out on Monday. I was suppose to depart on a Continental flight at 11:05AM to Newark, then connect onto Boston where I’d arrive at 3:00PM. So as I’m sitting by the gate, the gate attendant gets onto the intercom to ask for volunteers to give up their seats. Since I wasn’t doing anything I figured I’d volunteer and earn some flight credits for my next trip.
So as I’m talking to the guy he tells me that they’ll give me a flight credit of $150 and I’ll be re-booked on a different flight. I assumed I’d be in the terminal for another few hours while I waited for the next flight out, but this was not the case. The guy re-booked me on a US Airways direct flight to Boston that was leaving at 11:35AM, just 30 minutes after my original flight was going to depart. I would fly direct and get in at 1:45PM. I was fricken ecstatic and the attendant acted like it happens all the time.
So needless to say I felt like I got away with a major con job, but it seems as though these types of things happen all the time. I’m not sure what the agreements with these airlines are for transferring passengers but to me it seems rather inefficient. It seems like there are major holes in this system and until they’re fixed I’m not recommending airline stocks although, I’d like to thank Continental for my future discounted trip. Vegas Baby!
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
I want to be like Mommy!
(Here's the reply the teacher received the following day)
Dear Mrs. Jones,
I wish to clarify that I am not now, nor have I ever been, an exotic dancer.
I work at Home Depot and I told my daughter how hectic it was last week before the blizzard hit. I told her we sold out every single shovel we had, and then I found one more in the back room, and that several people were fighting over who would get it. Her picture doesn't show me dancing around a pole. It's supposed to depict me selling the last snow shovel we had at Home Depot.
From now on I will remember to check her homework more thoroughly before she turns it in.
Sincerely,
Mrs. Smith
I'm sure a lil bit of the stimulus money gets spent on these kinds of activities... strip clubs that is.. Maybe even some TARP money for all we know.
On a side note. I hope my kid draws a picture of me pole dancing, i mean selling shirts with people begging me to take their money, cause we all know thats whats going on over here at WallStClothing.com
Keep it real
WSC
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Monday, January 19, 2009
Porn Bailout
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
The ugly side of Wall Street
And to think, he didn't even buy a shirt from us.
Now for the real ugly side of Wall Street
And now for the not so ugly
Monday, January 12, 2009
Market shits the bed, time for an anecdote.
(You might be thinking that, “hey the market didn’t do too bad today, it’s been worse.” But let me warn you that this series will have a direct correlation to my own stock picks, not the market as a whole. Lumber Liquidators dropped a huge egg today and not the golden kind. I know, who would have thought it would go any lower but that’s what I get for thinking I know a stock that I watched for 6 months. Anyways I blame Steve. )
But here we go:
So after college graduation we decided to take a trip to “live it up” before we hit the real world. The destination was based on where AirTran Airways could take us, because I had a remaining free flight I had to use. (Note: I’m in the process of writing the hilarious story of our Wendy’s/AirTran adventure so keep checking back in to hear that tale.) Anyways, we picked Miami because we went down there for spring break one year and had a great time. So I tried getting a big crew assembled to take part in the trip but I only got three other heads to join me. We got in late and who was there to surprise us at the hotel? Non-other than fellow Wall St Clothing founders Clint & Innis. This was a huge surprise for all of us because we had no idea and they managed to keep it a secret for over 3 months which is difficult to do when you’re around someone 24/7. Put it this way, we were so close that if we were girls we’d all be getting our periods at the same time. I think Steve actually had his period one month.
So we have a power hour one night and we hit up the town afterward. Needless to say we were all smashed and we ended up breaking into 3 groups. Me and Steve hung out with bums all night singing songs and having them paint us pictures on drift wood. (Yeah, its as weird as it sounds) Innis and Clint end up going into a couple of clubs, they had a few drinks and eventually left while still pretty drunk. Innis got so crunk that he called his father by accident at 3:00AM. The following is a conversation Clint and Innis had a few months after the incident:
cOoP531 (3:14:34 PM): miami was worse
cOoP531 (3:14:48 PM): when we were at the mamacita club
cOoP531 (3:14:54 PM): and i just left you there
cOoP531 (3:14:55 PM): haha
inns77 (3:14:56 PM): oya
inns77 (3:15:01 PM): that was terrible
cOoP531 (3:15:06 PM): hahha
inns77 (3:15:10 PM): i get lost and i dont know where anyone is
cOoP531 (3:15:12 PM): i couldnt even hear anyone talking
cOoP531 (3:15:18 PM): i was like in my own world
inns77 (3:15:29 PM): i remember i tryied calling you and i ended up calling my dad by mistake
cOoP531 (3:15:32 PM): some girl was trying to talk to me and i just walked away from her
cOoP531 (3:15:37 PM): hahah
inns77 (3:15:37 PM): haha
Well the moral of the story is if you’re going on vacation to Miami or Vegas, hell even a night of staying home and drinking, get any number out of your phone that you shouldn’t be calling at 3:00AM. Have a sibling’s number or a best friend’s number in your phone In case something does happen, but not your parents. This rule is not to be confused with drunk dialing. That issue will be addressed later.
Sunday, January 11, 2009
State Lottery Sales Rising during Recession
And oh ya "Be A Winner"-WSC
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Ebay + Michigan + Recession= $3000 houses
I have been trying to investigate this and find the bullshit factor on these houses, but they seem pretty legit. So who's with me lets buy like 20 houses in Michigan and have a block party. It will be all fun and games until GM goes under and the houses are worth $30 on ebay. Imagine that, bidding $30 for a house and winning. I paid $30 for lunch today at the 99, and yes it was fucking delicious.
Lose your job NO PROBLEM!
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
Deb, I award you no points and God have Mercy on your soul
Every morning before I go to work I pick up a free Metro at the T...no homo. For those of you who don't know what the Metro is, it's a free newspaper with articles mostly from the Associated Press. People read it on the subway and just end up throwing it away immediately, because it's crap. I pick it up specifically to get a laugh at what people have to say in a section called "Voices," where a bunch of people voice their opinion on certain topics in today's headlines. Anyways, I came across this article from a woman named Debbie complaining about the $700 billion bailout. She thought that it would be a "better idea to give each hardworking, taxpaying Americans $250,000 each." I had to quickly look up to check if there were smoking hot bombshells lathering their bodies with sexy oils, but there weren't...unfortunately I didn't take anything remotely close to the hallucinogens Debbie had before she sent in this article.
I love how art teachers, college kids in Birkenstocks or just ignorant people think they can come up with a better idea than what we are doing now. Yes, we all don't want CEO's getting huge bonus's or flying luxury jets to meetings, but it doesn't mean you can blurt things out like give everyone $250,000. That’s just dumb. Maybe come up with an idea where the government watched how they spend this money...which they already started doing just recently. AND do you know how many working Americans there are? I know there is a high unemployment rate but no way could we give $250,000 out to working Americans....we'd be lucky if we got $100. Besides the point, the $700billion won't pull us out of this recession right away, it takes time and I'll even come out and say we have seen the worst of things and it's just gonna get better. Now's the time to get stocks for cheap and make a killing, not make ignorant statements about what you think the government should do with $700billion.
Sunday, January 4, 2009
I love this video
“People think you make 10 million dollars, but then you pay your agent, pay taxes, buy the nice house, help the family out. Okay, now your left with your dick in your hand basically”-Lenny Dykstra
Are sporting event tickets just too expensive??
Vikings’ ticket sales avoid local TV blackout
EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn. (AP)—Fans purchased more than 20,000 tickets to Minnesota’s playoff game over six days, assuring there will be no local TV blackout when the Vikings host Philadelphia at the Metrodome on Sunday.
The Vikings announced the sales results Saturday afternoon for their wild-card playoff game with the Eagles after moving the remaining 3,100 seats that were still unsold the day before. There were a limited number of tickets remaining for the game, including some returned by the Eagles.
The NFL gave the Vikings two extensions, the second until Saturday—24 hours before kickoff—after they sold about 5,000 seats from Thursday to Friday.
Only about 55 percent of the 55,000 season-ticket holders chose to buy playoff tickets, leaving the large supply. This extended the team’s sellout streak to a rather tenuous 115 games. The last blackout was for the Vikings’ last game of the 1997 regular season.
Vikings vice president for sales and marketing Steve LaCroix said there was no help from corporate sponsors or the local Fox affiliate, as there has been in the past for regular-season games with a few hundred tickets left to sell.
“It was all the fans. The fans get all the credit,” LaCroix said. “We needed that extra time, and the league was very accommodating.”
The Eagles ran an ad on their Web site this week, encouraging fans to travel to Minnesota and “paint the Metrodome green.”
LaCroix declined to offer an estimate of how many Eagles fans ultimately bought tickets, but said there weren’t any “bulk purchases” by businesses in the Philadelphia area. Eagles fans traditionally travel well, so there’s sure to be some vocal support for the visiting team on Sunday afternoon.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=ap-vikings-tickets&prov=ap&type=lgns
Are ticket sales just too expensive given this recession? For a family of four to get to a game these days it has to cost well above 500 bucks after a few hot dogs and beers. Then again you have teams like the Vikings who have a stadium well above 100,000 seats and they can't sell out, supply and demand, now you have so many people that need to fill the stadium in order for the team to have the local broadcast. If no one buys that ticket everyone looses out and gets stuck watching no game.
I guess this was more of a rant than anything else. How about everybody buys a shirt so I can catch a few games next year.
Fifty dollar house??
So what does everyone think of this? It looks like a nice house, but then again a extra large cardboard box on a few square feet of land for fifty bucks would be nice too. I guess you do get one of the largest European beech trees in the state of Maryland!!
Well anyways you can take a look at the house here. The drawing will be Jan. 23.
Saturday, January 3, 2009
Recession? Not on Inauguration weekend in DC
Becky Quick or Trish Regan? Who is the smokeshow?
OK, for 2009 I am going to go out on a limb and say that Trish Regan (2nd picture) is definitely the dime piece of cnbc. Which is definitely a surprise considering she is from Hampton, New Hampshire, Home of Hampton Beach. AKA white trash capitol of the world. What do you all think? Is Trish this hot or am I wrong? Becky Quick is always getting the interviews with Warren Buffet, so maybe she would be Warrens pick.
Friday, January 2, 2009
Russian's are Crazy
Thanks
WallStClothing.com