Friday, March 6, 2009

I hate being right, and now I am depressed.

So actually I lied I was wrong. I was calling for a push down to 7500..... Currently we are at 6500 on the Dow. GRRRRRRRRRREEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAATTTTTTTTTTTT.

Sorry, I have been slacking on the writing, I just can't muster up the energy with the market in its current state. Tear.


After reading this article I am even slightly more depressed. Here are few points I took away from the article.

"In the end, the timing of the bear's retreat will likely hinge on that great market imponderable: psychology. How investors feel has a lot to do with whether they start seeing mixed signals as proof of a glass half-full. "The [market] stress causes the analytical part of our brains to shut down, and that makes us hyperreactive to bad news," says Michael A. Ervolini, CEO of Cabot Research, a consultancy catering to institutional investors. People become convinced conditions are worse than rock-bottom bad, he says. Only after they see that they've overreacted can things improve: "We look for the market to start [saying] tomorrow will be brighter." - Business Week

I whole heartedly believe this is true, partly because it feel like it has happened to me and most of the people I associate with. I mean lets be honest watching the market go down a couple hundred points everyday really make you just want to take the ole mini van out for a spin the wrong way down 95 and hope for the best.

As much is this does hurt right now, one can only think that it has to be one of the greatest opportunities for people in the age bracket of 20-30 with money to put into the market. If you decided today to put 10k into the market (I don't condone such balls of steel) the market would only ( I say only like its just so easy) have to get back to 8125 for a 25% return on their money. Now based on that article it is going to take around 6-8 years for the Dow to get back to 14,000 level, but hell that would be a 115% return in 6 years. Not bad right? Well not unless you started investing 10k on the day it notched over 14,000.... Then you are just back to even, given you never invested a cent after that, which would just be dumb.




So people, for the time being, lets just try to gather those happy thoughts and turn the market back around. Throw on Mr. Jones by the Counting Crows and just stare at this picture, clearly it will solve all the problems you have.



Thanks
WSC



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